West Yellowhead

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold West Yellowhead, with 62.9% to 33.8%. That is very likely (99% of simulated elections).

UCP71.8% → 62.9%
NDP28.2% → 33.8%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 29.1 points (2023: UCP by 43.6). UCP win West Yellowhead if their lead province-wide is more than about −27.0 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where West Yellowhead changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

West Yellowhead is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of West Yellowhead: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Martin Long (UCP) won West Yellowhead in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 71.8% of the vote, 8,777 votes (43.6 points) ahead of Fred Kreiner (NDP). 20,135 valid votes were counted; turnout was 57.1%.

Martin Long
Elected for United Conservative
8,777 voteswinning margin (43.6 points)
Martin Long 71.8%Fred Kreiner 28.2%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

West Yellowhead 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Martin LongelectedUnited Conservative14,456
71.8%
Fred KreinerNew Democratic5,679
28.2%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 70th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 8,777 votes (43.6 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Martin Long took 71.8% here, 19.2 points above that.
  • Turnout was 57.1%, 3.4 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 35,526 electors were registered; 138 ballots were rejected and 18 were declined.

Nearby divisions