Grande Prairie

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Grande Prairie, with 55.0% to 36.9%. That is very likely (94% of simulated elections).

UCP63.9% → 55.0%
NDP31.3% → 36.9%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 18.1 points (2023: UCP by 32.7). UCP win Grande Prairie if their lead province-wide is more than about −16.1 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Grande Prairie changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Grande Prairie is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Grande Prairie: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Nolan Dyck (UCP) won Grande Prairie in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 63.9% of the vote, 5,111 votes (32.7 points) ahead of Kevin McLean (NDP). 15,641 valid votes were counted; turnout was 49.7%.

Nolan Dyck
Elected for United Conservative
5,111 voteswinning margin (32.7 points)
Nolan Dyck 63.9%Kevin McLean 31.3%David Braun 2.2%Preston Mildenberger 1.5%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Grande Prairie 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Nolan DyckelectedUnited Conservative10,001
63.9%
Kevin McLeanNew Democratic4,890
31.3%
David BraunIndependence Party348
2.2%
Preston MildenbergerAlberta Party242
1.5%
Shane DiederichGreen160
1%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 52nd-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 5,111 votes (32.7 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Nolan Dyck took 63.9% here, 11.3 points above that.
  • Turnout was 49.7%, 10.8 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 31,589 electors were registered; 67 ballots were rejected and 4 were declined.

Nearby divisions