Grande Prairie-Wapiti

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Grande Prairie-Wapiti, with 67.3% to 26.1%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP76.2% → 67.3%
NDP20.5% → 26.1%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 41.2 points (2023: UCP by 55.7). UCP win Grande Prairie-Wapiti if their lead province-wide is more than about −39.1 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Grande Prairie-Wapiti changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Grande Prairie-Wapiti is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Grande Prairie-Wapiti: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Ron Wiebe (UCP) won Grande Prairie-Wapiti in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 76.2% of the vote, 11,030 votes (55.7 points) ahead of Dustin Archibald (NDP). 19,801 valid votes were counted; turnout was 55.7%.

Ron Wiebe
Elected for United Conservative
11,030 voteswinning margin (55.7 points)
Ron Wiebe 76.2%Dustin Archibald 20.5%Brooklyn Biegel 3.3%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Grande Prairie-Wapiti 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Ron WiebeelectedUnited Conservative15,093
76.2%
Dustin ArchibaldNew Democratic4,063
20.5%
Brooklyn BiegelIndependence Party645
3.3%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 83rd-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 11,030 votes (55.7 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Ron Wiebe took 76.2% here, 23.6 points above that.
  • Turnout was 55.7%, 4.8 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 35,678 electors were registered; 64 ballots were rejected and 4 were declined.

Nearby divisions