Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland, with 60.1% to 32.7%. That is very likely (99% of simulated elections).

UCP69.0% → 60.1%
NDP27.1% → 32.7%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 27.3 points (2023: UCP by 41.8). UCP win Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland if their lead province-wide is more than about −25.2 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Shane Getson (UCP) won Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 69% of the vote, 9,055 votes (41.8 points) ahead of Oneil Carlier (NDP). 21,641 valid votes were counted; turnout was 62.8%.

Shane Getson
Elected for United Conservative
9,055 voteswinning margin (41.8 points)
Shane Getson 69%Oneil Carlier 27.1%Janet Jabush 2.1%Vanessa Diehl 0.9%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Shane GetsonelectedUnited Conservative14,923
69%
Oneil CarlierNew Democratic5,868
27.1%
Janet JabushAlberta Party463
2.1%
Vanessa DiehlGreen205
0.9%
Marilyn BurnsAdvantage Party182
0.8%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 72nd-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 9,055 votes (41.8 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Shane Getson took 69% here, 16.4 points above that.
  • Turnout was 62.8%, 2.3 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 34,609 electors were registered; 79 ballots were rejected and 6 were declined.

Nearby divisions