St. Albert

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold St. Albert, with 54.4% to 35.4%. That is very likely (95% of simulated elections).

UCP39.7% → 35.4%
NDP58.5% → 54.4%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 19.0 points (2023: NDP by 18.8). UCP win St. Albert if their lead province-wide is more than about +21.1 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where St. Albert changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

St. Albert is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of St. Albert: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Marie Renaud (NDP) won St. Albert in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 58.5% of the vote, 4,821 votes (18.8 points) ahead of Angela Wood (UCP). 25,676 valid votes were counted; turnout was 66.6%.

Marie Renaud
Elected for New Democratic
4,821 voteswinning margin (18.8 points)
Marie Renaud 58.5%Angela Wood 39.7%Cameron Jefferies 1.8%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

St. Albert 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Marie RenaudelectedNew Democratic15,021
58.5%
Angela WoodUnited Conservative10,200
39.7%
Cameron JefferiesGreen455
1.8%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 49th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 4,821 votes (18.8 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Marie Renaud took 58.5% here, 14.5 points above that.
  • Turnout was 66.6%, 6.1 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 38,774 electors were registered; 148 ballots were rejected and 13 were declined.

Nearby divisions