Edmonton-Castle Downs

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Edmonton-Castle Downs, with 51.6% to 36.1%. That is very likely (91% of simulated elections).

UCP40.4% → 36.1%
NDP55.7% → 51.6%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 15.5 points (2023: NDP by 15.3). UCP win Edmonton-Castle Downs if their lead province-wide is more than about +17.6 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Edmonton-Castle Downs changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Edmonton-Castle Downs is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Edmonton-Castle Downs: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Nicole Goehring (NDP) won Edmonton-Castle Downs in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 55.7% of the vote, 2,758 votes (15.3 points) ahead of Jon Dziadyk (UCP). 18,037 valid votes were counted; turnout was 53.9%.

Nicole Goehring
Elected for New Democratic
2,758 voteswinning margin (15.3 points)
Nicole Goehring 55.7%Jon Dziadyk 40.4%Patrick Stewart 3.9%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Edmonton-Castle Downs 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Nicole GoehringelectedNew Democratic10,044
55.7%
Jon DziadykUnited Conservative7,286
40.4%
Patrick StewartAlberta Party707
3.9%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 25th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 2,758 votes (15.3 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Nicole Goehring took 55.7% here, 11.7 points above that.
  • Turnout was 53.9%, 6.6 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 33,723 electors were registered; 124 ballots were rejected and 11 were declined.

Nearby divisions