Edmonton-Manning

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Edmonton-Manning, with 55.7% to 34.0%. That is very likely (97% of simulated elections).

UCP38.4% → 34.0%
NDP59.8% → 55.7%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 21.7 points (2023: NDP by 21.4). UCP win Edmonton-Manning if their lead province-wide is more than about +23.8 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Edmonton-Manning changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Edmonton-Manning is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Edmonton-Manning: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Heather Sweet (NDP) won Edmonton-Manning in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 59.8% of the vote, 3,778 votes (21.4 points) ahead of Albert Mazzocca (UCP). 17,649 valid votes were counted; turnout was 51%.

Heather Sweet
Elected for New Democratic
3,778 voteswinning margin (21.4 points)
Heather Sweet 59.8%Albert Mazzocca 38.4%Derek Thompson 1.9%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Edmonton-Manning 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Heather SweetelectedNew Democratic10,547
59.8%
Albert MazzoccaUnited Conservative6,769
38.4%
Derek ThompsonGreen333
1.9%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 39th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 3,778 votes (21.4 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Heather Sweet took 59.8% here, 15.8 points above that.
  • Turnout was 51%, 9.5 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 34,851 electors were registered; 123 ballots were rejected and 8 were declined.

Nearby divisions