Sherwood Park

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Sherwood Park, with 46.2% to 39.6%. That is likely (72% of simulated elections).

UCP43.9% → 39.6%
NDP50.3% → 46.2%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 6.6 points (2023: NDP by 6.4). UCP win Sherwood Park if their lead province-wide is more than about +8.7 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Sherwood Park changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Sherwood Park is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Sherwood Park: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Kyle Kasawski (NDP) won Sherwood Park in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 50.3% of the vote, 1,661 votes (6.4 points) ahead of Jordan Walker (UCP). 26,073 valid votes were counted; turnout was 70.3%.

Kyle Kasawski
Elected for New Democratic
1,661 voteswinning margin (6.4 points)
Kyle Kasawski 50.3%Jordan Walker 43.9%Sue Timanson 5%Jacob Stacey 0.9%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Sherwood Park 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Kyle KasawskielectedNew Democratic13,108
50.3%
Jordan WalkerUnited Conservative11,447
43.9%
Sue TimansonAlberta Party1,293
5%
Jacob StaceyLiberal225
0.9%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 15th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 1,661 votes (6.4 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Kyle Kasawski took 50.3% here, 6.3 points above that.
  • Turnout was 70.3%, 9.8 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 37,284 electors were registered; 118 ballots were rejected and 10 were declined.

Nearby divisions