Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, with 60.6% to 19.5%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP69.5% → 60.6%
NDP13.9% → 19.5%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 41.0 points (2023: UCP by 55.6). UCP win Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre if their lead province-wide is more than about −38.9 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Jason Nixon (UCP) won Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 69.5% of the vote, 12,178 votes (54.3 points) ahead of Tim Hoven (Independent). 22,416 valid votes were counted; turnout was 65.9%.

Jason Nixon
Elected for United Conservative
12,178 voteswinning margin (54.3 points)
Jason Nixon 69.5%Tim Hoven 15.1%Vance Buchwald 13.9%Fred Schwieger 0.6%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Jason NixonelectedUnited Conservative15,571
69.5%
Tim HovenIndependent3,393
15.1%
Vance BuchwaldNew Democratic3,118
13.9%
Fred SchwiegerIndependent135
0.6%
Carol Nordlund KinseyAdvantage Party103
0.5%
Tami TatlockWildrose Loyalty Coalition96
0.4%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 85th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 12,178 votes (54.3 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Jason Nixon took 69.5% here, 16.9 points above that.
  • Turnout was 65.9%, 5.4 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 34,215 electors were registered; 131 ballots were rejected and 11 were declined.

Nearby divisions