Banff-Kananaskis

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Banff-Kananaskis, with 55.3% to 39.5%. That is very likely (90% of simulated elections).

UCP48.4% → 39.5%
NDP49.7% → 55.3%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 15.8 points (2023: NDP by 1.3). UCP win Banff-Kananaskis if their lead province-wide is more than about +17.9 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Banff-Kananaskis changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Banff-Kananaskis is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Banff-Kananaskis: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Sarah Elmeligi (NDP) won Banff-Kananaskis in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 49.7% of the vote, 303 votes (1.3 points) ahead of Miranda Rosin (UCP). 23,262 valid votes were counted; turnout was 69.2%.

Sarah Elmeligi
Elected for New Democratic
303 voteswinning margin (1.3 points)
Sarah Elmeligi 49.7%Miranda Rosin 48.4%Regan Boychuk 1.4%Kyle Jubb 0.5%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Banff-Kananaskis 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Sarah ElmeligielectedNew Democratic11,562
49.7%
Miranda RosinUnited Conservative11,259
48.4%
Regan BoychukGreen336
1.4%
Kyle JubbSolidarity Movement105
0.5%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 7th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 303 votes (1.3 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Sarah Elmeligi took 49.7% here, 5.7 points above that.
  • Turnout was 69.2%, 8.7 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 33,971 electors were registered; 243 ballots were rejected and 9 were declined.

Nearby divisions