Calgary-West

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Calgary-West, with 51.2% to 40.9%. That is likely (82% of simulated elections).

UCP56.7% → 51.2%
NDP41.9% → 40.9%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 10.3 points (2023: UCP by 14.7). UCP win Calgary-West if their lead province-wide is more than about −8.2 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Calgary-West changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Calgary polling

Calgary-West is projected from the Calgary poll average: UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202646%45%

This is a model, not a poll of Calgary-West: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Calgary polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Mike Ellis (UCP) won Calgary-West in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 56.7% of the vote, 3,325 votes (14.7 points) ahead of Joan Chand'oiseau (NDP). 22,574 valid votes were counted; turnout was 66.7%.

Mike Ellis
Elected for United Conservative
3,325 voteswinning margin (14.7 points)
Mike Ellis 56.7%Joan Chand'oiseau 41.9%Jason McKee 1.4%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Calgary-West 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Mike ElliselectedUnited Conservative12,793
56.7%
Joan Chand'oiseauNew Democratic9,468
41.9%
Jason McKeeGreen313
1.4%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 31st-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 3,325 votes (14.7 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Mike Ellis took 56.7% here, 4.1 points above that.
  • Turnout was 66.7%, 6.2 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 34,156 electors were registered; 179 ballots were rejected and 14 were declined.

Nearby divisions