Camrose

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Camrose, with 54.5% to 32.8%. That is very likely (97% of simulated elections).

UCP63.4% → 54.5%
NDP27.1% → 32.8%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 21.7 points (2023: UCP by 36.3). UCP win Camrose if their lead province-wide is more than about −19.6 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Camrose changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Camrose is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Camrose: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Jackie Lovely (UCP) won Camrose in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 63.4% of the vote, 7,453 votes (36.3 points) ahead of Richard Bruneau (NDP). 20,556 valid votes were counted; turnout was 63.3%.

Jackie Lovely
Elected for United Conservative
7,453 voteswinning margin (36.3 points)
Jackie Lovely 63.4%Richard Bruneau 27.1%Bob Blayone 8.5%Pamela Henson 1%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Camrose 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Jackie LovelyelectedUnited Conservative13,032
63.4%
Richard BruneauNew Democratic5,579
27.1%
Bob BlayoneIndependent1,740
8.5%
Pamela HensonWildrose Loyalty Coalition205
1%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 65th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 7,453 votes (36.3 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Jackie Lovely took 63.4% here, 10.8 points above that.
  • Turnout was 63.3%, 2.8 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 32,649 electors were registered; 83 ballots were rejected and 13 were declined.

Nearby divisions