Leduc-Beaumont

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Leduc-Beaumont, with 52.4% to 36.4%. That is very likely (92% of simulated elections).

UCP56.7% → 52.4%
NDP40.5% → 36.4%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 16.0 points (2023: UCP by 16.3). UCP win Leduc-Beaumont if their lead province-wide is more than about −13.9 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Leduc-Beaumont changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Leduc-Beaumont is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Leduc-Beaumont: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Brandon Lunty (UCP) won Leduc-Beaumont in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 56.7% of the vote, 4,049 votes (16.3 points) ahead of Cam Heenan (NDP). 24,880 valid votes were counted; turnout was 62.8%.

Brandon Lunty
Elected for United Conservative
4,049 voteswinning margin (16.3 points)
Brandon Lunty 56.7%Cam Heenan 40.5%Kirk Cayer 1.2%Sharon Maclise 1%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Leduc-Beaumont 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Brandon LuntyelectedUnited Conservative14,118
56.7%
Cam HeenanNew Democratic10,069
40.5%
Kirk CayerIndependent292
1.2%
Sharon MacliseIndependence Party257
1%
Bill KaufmannSolidarity Movement144
0.6%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 40th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 4,049 votes (16.3 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Brandon Lunty took 56.7% here, 4.1 points above that.
  • Turnout was 62.8%, 2.3 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 39,857 electors were registered; 156 ballots were rejected and 10 were declined.

Nearby divisions