Edmonton-Rutherford

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Edmonton-Rutherford, with 61.0% to 27.5%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP31.8% → 27.5%
NDP65.1% → 61.0%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 33.5 points (2023: NDP by 33.2). UCP win Edmonton-Rutherford if their lead province-wide is more than about +35.6 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Edmonton-Rutherford changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Edmonton-Rutherford is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Edmonton-Rutherford: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse (NDP) won Edmonton-Rutherford in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 65.1% of the vote, 6,646 votes (33.2 points) ahead of Laine Larson (UCP). 20,002 valid votes were counted; turnout was 64.2%.

Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse
Elected for New Democratic
6,646 voteswinning margin (33.2 points)
Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse 65.1%Laine Larson 31.8%Jordan Wilkie 3.1%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Edmonton-Rutherford 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Jodi Calahoo StonehouseelectedNew Democratic13,012
65.1%
Laine LarsonUnited Conservative6,366
31.8%
Jordan WilkieGreen624
3.1%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 59th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 6,646 votes (33.2 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse took 65.1% here, 21.1 points above that.
  • Turnout was 64.2%, 3.7 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 31,392 electors were registered; 137 ballots were rejected and 13 were declined.

Nearby divisions