Edmonton-Strathcona

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Edmonton-Strathcona, with 75.7% to 13.0%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP17.3% → 13.0%
NDP79.7% → 75.7%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 62.7 points (2023: NDP by 62.4). UCP win Edmonton-Strathcona if their lead province-wide is more than about +64.8 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Edmonton-Strathcona changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Edmonton-Strathcona is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Edmonton-Strathcona: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Rachel Notley (NDP) won Edmonton-Strathcona in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 79.7% of the vote, 10,948 votes (62.4 points) ahead of Emad El-Zein (UCP). 17,535 valid votes were counted; turnout was 59.3%.

Rachel Notley
Elected for New Democratic
10,948 voteswinning margin (62.4 points)
Rachel Notley 79.7%Emad El-Zein 17.3%Robert Gooding-Townsend 1.8%Andrew Jacobson 0.6%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Edmonton-Strathcona 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Rachel NotleyelectedNew Democratic13,980
79.7%
Emad El-ZeinUnited Conservative3,032
17.3%
Robert Gooding-TownsendGreen324
1.8%
Andrew JacobsonBuffalo Party106
0.6%
Robert NielsenWildrose Loyalty Coalition93
0.5%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 82nd-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 10,948 votes (62.4 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Rachel Notley took 79.7% here, 35.7 points above that.
  • Turnout was 59.3%, 1.2 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 29,841 electors were registered; 154 ballots were rejected and 14 were declined.

Nearby divisions