Edmonton-South West

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Edmonton-South West, with 52.5% to 37.9%. That is likely (89% of simulated elections).

UCP42.2% → 37.9%
NDP56.5% → 52.5%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 14.6 points (2023: NDP by 14.3). UCP win Edmonton-South West if their lead province-wide is more than about +16.6 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Edmonton-South West changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Edmonton-South West is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Edmonton-South West: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Nathan Ip (NDP) won Edmonton-South West in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 56.5% of the vote, 3,639 votes (14.3 points) ahead of Kaycee Madu (UCP). 25,444 valid votes were counted; turnout was 61.8%.

Nathan Ip
Elected for New Democratic
3,639 voteswinning margin (14.3 points)
Nathan Ip 56.5%Kaycee Madu 42.2%Jeff Cullihall 1.3%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Edmonton-South West 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Nathan IpelectedNew Democratic14,380
56.5%
Kaycee MaduUnited Conservative10,741
42.2%
Jeff CullihallGreen323
1.3%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 38th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 3,639 votes (14.3 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Nathan Ip took 56.5% here, 12.5 points above that.
  • Turnout was 61.8%, 1.3 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 41,428 electors were registered; 138 ballots were rejected and 12 were declined.

Nearby divisions