Edmonton-South

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Edmonton-South, with 54.9% to 35.2%. That is very likely (96% of simulated elections).

UCP39.5% → 35.2%
NDP59.0% → 54.9%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 19.7 points (2023: NDP by 19.5). UCP win Edmonton-South if their lead province-wide is more than about +21.8 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Edmonton-South changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Edmonton-South is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Edmonton-South: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Rhiannon Hoyle (NDP) won Edmonton-South in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 59% of the vote, 4,679 votes (19.5 points) ahead of Joseph Angeles (UCP). 24,032 valid votes were counted; turnout was 60.4%.

Rhiannon Hoyle
Elected for New Democratic
4,679 voteswinning margin (19.5 points)
Rhiannon Hoyle 59%Joseph Angeles 39.5%Chryssy Beckmann 1.5%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Edmonton-South 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Rhiannon HoyleelectedNew Democratic14,171
59%
Joseph AngelesUnited Conservative9,492
39.5%
Chryssy BeckmannGreen369
1.5%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 48th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 4,679 votes (19.5 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Rhiannon Hoyle took 59% here, 15 points above that.
  • Turnout was 60.4%, 0.1 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 40,082 electors were registered; 168 ballots were rejected and 6 were declined.

Nearby divisions