Edmonton-Ellerslie

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Edmonton-Ellerslie, with 57.7% to 32.5%. That is very likely (98% of simulated elections).

UCP36.8% → 32.5%
NDP61.7% → 57.7%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 25.2 points (2023: NDP by 24.9). UCP win Edmonton-Ellerslie if their lead province-wide is more than about +27.3 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Edmonton-Ellerslie changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Edmonton-Ellerslie is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Edmonton-Ellerslie: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Rod Loyola (NDP) won Edmonton-Ellerslie in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 61.7% of the vote, 4,612 votes (24.9 points) ahead of R. Singh Bath (UCP). 18,510 valid votes were counted; turnout was 55.9%.

Rod Loyola
Elected for New Democratic
4,612 voteswinning margin (24.9 points)
Rod Loyola 61.7%R. Singh Bath 36.8%Angela Stretch 1.4%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Edmonton-Ellerslie 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Rod LoyolaelectedNew Democratic11,429
61.7%
R. Singh BathUnited Conservative6,817
36.8%
Angela StretchWildrose Loyalty Coalition264
1.4%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 45th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 4,612 votes (24.9 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Rod Loyola took 61.7% here, 17.7 points above that.
  • Turnout was 55.9%, 4.6 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 33,278 electors were registered; 101 ballots were rejected and 7 were declined.

Nearby divisions