Edmonton-Decore

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Edmonton-Decore, with 48.7% to 36.9%. That is likely (84% of simulated elections).

UCP41.2% → 36.9%
NDP52.8% → 48.7%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 11.9 points (2023: NDP by 11.6). UCP win Edmonton-Decore if their lead province-wide is more than about +14.0 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Edmonton-Decore changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Edmonton-Decore is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Edmonton-Decore: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Sharif Haji (NDP) won Edmonton-Decore in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 52.8% of the vote, 1,783 votes (11.6 points) ahead of Sayid Ahmed (UCP). 15,361 valid votes were counted; turnout was 47.9%.

Sharif Haji
Elected for New Democratic
1,783 voteswinning margin (11.6 points)
Sharif Haji 52.8%Sayid Ahmed 41.2%Brent Tyson 4.1%Donald Slater 1.9%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Edmonton-Decore 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Sharif HajielectedNew Democratic8,109
52.8%
Sayid AhmedUnited Conservative6,326
41.2%
Brent TysonAlberta Party631
4.1%
Donald SlaterLiberal295
1.9%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 17th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 1,783 votes (11.6 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Sharif Haji took 52.8% here, 8.8 points above that.
  • Turnout was 47.9%, 12.6 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 32,339 electors were registered; 101 ballots were rejected and 13 were declined.

Nearby divisions