Edmonton-North West

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Edmonton-North West, with 55.7% to 33.9%. That is very likely (97% of simulated elections).

UCP38.2% → 33.9%
NDP59.7% → 55.7%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 21.8 points (2023: NDP by 21.5). UCP win Edmonton-North West if their lead province-wide is more than about +23.8 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Edmonton-North West changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Edmonton-North West is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Edmonton-North West: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

David Eggen (NDP) won Edmonton-North West in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 59.7% of the vote, 3,590 votes (21.5 points) ahead of Ali Haymour (UCP). 16,701 valid votes were counted; turnout was 53%.

David Eggen
Elected for New Democratic
3,590 voteswinning margin (21.5 points)
David Eggen 59.7%Ali Haymour 38.2%Tyler Beaulac 2%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Edmonton-North West 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
David EggenelectedNew Democratic9,978
59.7%
Ali HaymourUnited Conservative6,388
38.2%
Tyler BeaulacGreen335
2%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 37th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 3,590 votes (21.5 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; David Eggen took 59.7% here, 15.7 points above that.
  • Turnout was 53%, 7.5 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 31,788 electors were registered; 134 ballots were rejected and 11 were declined.

Nearby divisions