Edmonton-Mill Woods
Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election
On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Edmonton-Mill Woods, with 57.6% to 34.0%. That is very likely (98% of simulated elections).
Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.
How close is it?
Projected margin: NDP by 23.6 points (2023: NDP by 23.4). UCP win Edmonton-Mill Woods if their lead province-wide is more than about +25.7 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.
Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Edmonton-Mill Woods changes hands, assuming every region moves together.
Edmonton polling
Edmonton-Mill Woods is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.
This is a model, not a poll of Edmonton-Mill Woods: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.
2023 election results
Christina Gray (NDP) won Edmonton-Mill Woods in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 61.7% of the vote, 4,194 votes (23.4 points) ahead of Raman Athwal (UCP). 17,932 valid votes were counted; turnout was 57.3%.
These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.
Results by candidate
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christina Grayelected | New Democratic | 11,063 | 61.7% |
| Raman Athwal | United Conservative | 6,869 | 38.3% |
Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.
How it compares
- The 43rd-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 4,194 votes (23.4 points).
- New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Christina Gray took 61.7% here, 17.7 points above that.
- Turnout was 57.3%, 3.2 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
- 31,598 electors were registered; 156 ballots were rejected and 21 were declined.
Nearby divisions
- Edmonton-Meadows · Jasvir Deol (NDP)
- Edmonton-Rutherford · Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse (NDP)
- Edmonton-Strathcona · Rachel Notley (NDP)
- Edmonton-Ellerslie · Rod Loyola (NDP)
- Edmonton-Gold Bar · Marlin Schmidt (NDP)