Edmonton-Gold Bar

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Edmonton-Gold Bar, with 65.4% to 23.3%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP27.7% → 23.3%
NDP69.5% → 65.4%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 42.1 points (2023: NDP by 41.8). UCP win Edmonton-Gold Bar if their lead province-wide is more than about +44.2 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Edmonton-Gold Bar changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Edmonton-Gold Bar is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Edmonton-Gold Bar: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Marlin Schmidt (NDP) won Edmonton-Gold Bar in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 69.5% of the vote, 9,334 votes (41.8 points) ahead of Miles Berry (UCP). 22,319 valid votes were counted; turnout was 64.7%.

Marlin Schmidt
Elected for New Democratic
9,334 voteswinning margin (41.8 points)
Marlin Schmidt 69.5%Miles Berry 27.7%Graham Lettner 1.4%Ernestina Malheiro 1.4%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Edmonton-Gold Bar 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Marlin SchmidtelectedNew Democratic15,508
69.5%
Miles BerryUnited Conservative6,174
27.7%
Graham LettnerIndependent321
1.4%
Ernestina MalheiroGreen316
1.4%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 75th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 9,334 votes (41.8 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Marlin Schmidt took 69.5% here, 25.5 points above that.
  • Turnout was 64.7%, 4.2 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 34,730 electors were registered; 128 ballots were rejected and 16 were declined.

Nearby divisions