Edmonton-West Henday

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Edmonton-West Henday, with 52.8% to 35.0%. That is very likely (94% of simulated elections).

UCP39.3% → 35.0%
NDP56.8% → 52.8%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 17.8 points (2023: NDP by 17.5). UCP win Edmonton-West Henday if their lead province-wide is more than about +19.8 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Edmonton-West Henday changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Edmonton-West Henday is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Edmonton-West Henday: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Brooks Arcand-Paul (NDP) won Edmonton-West Henday in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 56.8% of the vote, 3,539 votes (17.5 points) ahead of Slava Cravcenco (UCP). 20,224 valid votes were counted; turnout was 57.8%.

Brooks Arcand-Paul
Elected for New Democratic
3,539 voteswinning margin (17.5 points)
Brooks Arcand-Paul 56.8%Slava Cravcenco 39.3%Dan Bildhauer 1.9%Kristina Howard 1.9%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Edmonton-West Henday 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Brooks Arcand-PaulelectedNew Democratic11,495
56.8%
Slava CravcencoUnited Conservative7,956
39.3%
Dan BildhauerLiberal391
1.9%
Kristina HowardGreen382
1.9%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 35th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 3,539 votes (17.5 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Brooks Arcand-Paul took 56.8% here, 12.8 points above that.
  • Turnout was 57.8%, 2.7 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 35,217 electors were registered; 110 ballots were rejected and 8 were declined.

Nearby divisions