Edmonton-City Centre

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Edmonton-City Centre, with 70.8% to 17.9%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP22.2% → 17.9%
NDP74.9% → 70.8%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 52.9 points (2023: NDP by 52.7). UCP win Edmonton-City Centre if their lead province-wide is more than about +55.0 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Edmonton-City Centre changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Edmonton-City Centre is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Edmonton-City Centre: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

David Shepherd (NDP) won Edmonton-City Centre in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 74.9% of the vote, 8,740 votes (52.7 points) ahead of Richard Wong (UCP). 16,598 valid votes were counted; turnout was 52.9%.

David Shepherd
Elected for New Democratic
8,740 voteswinning margin (52.7 points)
David Shepherd 74.9%Richard Wong 22.2%David Clark 2.9%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Edmonton-City Centre 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
David ShepherdelectedNew Democratic12,431
74.9%
Richard WongUnited Conservative3,691
22.2%
David ClarkGreen476
2.9%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 69th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 8,740 votes (52.7 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; David Shepherd took 74.9% here, 30.9 points above that.
  • Turnout was 52.9%, 7.6 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 31,736 electors were registered; 184 ballots were rejected and 11 were declined.

Nearby divisions