Edmonton-McClung

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Edmonton-McClung, with 55.4% to 33.0%. That is very likely (97% of simulated elections).

UCP37.4% → 33.0%
NDP59.5% → 55.4%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 22.4 points (2023: NDP by 22.1). UCP win Edmonton-McClung if their lead province-wide is more than about +24.5 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Edmonton-McClung changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Edmonton-McClung is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Edmonton-McClung: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Lorne Dach (NDP) won Edmonton-McClung in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 59.5% of the vote, 3,574 votes (22.1 points) ahead of Daniel Heikkinen (UCP). 16,140 valid votes were counted; turnout was 57.5%.

Lorne Dach
Elected for New Democratic
3,574 voteswinning margin (22.1 points)
Lorne Dach 59.5%Daniel Heikkinen 37.4%Andrew J. Lineker 1.9%Terry Syvenky 1.2%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Edmonton-McClung 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Lorne DachelectedNew Democratic9,603
59.5%
Daniel HeikkinenUnited Conservative6,029
37.4%
Andrew J. LinekerIndependent309
1.9%
Terry SyvenkyGreen199
1.2%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 36th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 3,574 votes (22.1 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Lorne Dach took 59.5% here, 15.5 points above that.
  • Turnout was 57.5%, 3 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 28,275 electors were registered; 115 ballots were rejected and 17 were declined.

Nearby divisions