Lacombe-Ponoka
Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election
On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Lacombe-Ponoka, with 58.7% to 29.2%. That is very likely (99% of simulated elections).
Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.
How close is it?
Projected margin: UCP by 29.5 points (2023: UCP by 44.0). UCP win Lacombe-Ponoka if their lead province-wide is more than about −27.4 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.
Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Lacombe-Ponoka changes hands, assuming every region moves together.
Rest of Alberta polling
Lacombe-Ponoka is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.
This is a model, not a poll of Lacombe-Ponoka: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.
2023 election results
Jennifer Johnson (UCP) won Lacombe-Ponoka in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 67.6% of the vote, 9,329 votes (44 points) ahead of Dave Dale (NDP). 21,200 valid votes were counted; turnout was 61.8%.
These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.
Results by candidate
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Johnsonelected | United Conservative | 14,324 | 67.6% |
| Dave Dale | New Democratic | 4,995 | 23.6% |
| Myles Chykerda | Alberta Party | 1,167 | 5.5% |
| Daniel Jefferies | Wildrose Loyalty Coalition | 444 | 2.1% |
| Taylor Lowery | Green | 196 | 0.9% |
| Nathan Leslie | Solidarity Movement | 74 | 0.3% |
Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.
How it compares
- The 74th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 9,329 votes (44 points).
- United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Jennifer Johnson took 67.6% here, 15 points above that.
- Turnout was 61.8%, 1.3 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
- 34,495 electors were registered; 108 ballots were rejected and 20 were declined.
Nearby divisions
- Red Deer-North · Adriana LaGrange (UCP)
- Red Deer-South · Jason Stephan (UCP)
- Innisfail-Sylvan Lake · Devin Dreeshen (UCP)
- Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin · Rick Wilson (UCP)
- Leduc-Beaumont · Brandon Lunty (UCP)