Innisfail-Sylvan Lake

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, with 62.7% to 30.5%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP71.6% → 62.7%
NDP24.9% → 30.5%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 32.2 points (2023: UCP by 46.7). UCP win Innisfail-Sylvan Lake if their lead province-wide is more than about −30.1 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Innisfail-Sylvan Lake changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Innisfail-Sylvan Lake: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Devin Dreeshen (UCP) won Innisfail-Sylvan Lake in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 71.6% of the vote, 10,685 votes (46.7 points) ahead of Jason Heistad (NDP). 22,882 valid votes were counted; turnout was 62.5%.

Devin Dreeshen
Elected for United Conservative
10,685 voteswinning margin (46.7 points)
Devin Dreeshen 71.6%Jason Heistad 24.9%David Reid 1.2%Jeevan Mangat 1%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Devin DreeshenelectedUnited Conservative16,385
71.6%
Jason HeistadNew Democratic5,700
24.9%
David ReidIndependence Party276
1.2%
Jeevan MangatWildrose Independence240
1%
Brandon PringleSolidarity Movement149
0.7%
Randy ThorsteinsonReform Party132
0.6%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 81st-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 10,685 votes (46.7 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Devin Dreeshen took 71.6% here, 19 points above that.
  • Turnout was 62.5%, 2 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 36,837 electors were registered; 123 ballots were rejected and 11 were declined.

Nearby divisions