Red Deer-South

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Red Deer-South, with 47.2% to 47.2%. That is a toss-up (50% of simulated elections).

UCP56.1% → 47.2%
NDP41.5% → 47.2%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 0.0 points (2023: UCP by 14.5). UCP win Red Deer-South if their lead province-wide is more than about +2.1 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Red Deer-South changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Red Deer-South is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Red Deer-South: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Jason Stephan (UCP) won Red Deer-South in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 56.1% of the vote, 3,493 votes (14.5 points) ahead of Michelle Baer (NDP). 24,025 valid votes were counted; turnout was 62.5%.

Jason Stephan
Elected for United Conservative
3,493 voteswinning margin (14.5 points)
Jason Stephan 56.1%Michelle Baer 41.5%Ashley MacDonald 1.1%Jesse Stretch 0.7%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Red Deer-South 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Jason StephanelectedUnited Conservative13,469
56.1%
Michelle BaerNew Democratic9,976
41.5%
Ashley MacDonaldGreen274
1.1%
Jesse StretchWildrose Loyalty Coalition160
0.7%
Pamela LiebenbergSolidarity Movement146
0.6%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 34th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 3,493 votes (14.5 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Jason Stephan took 56.1% here, 3.5 points above that.
  • Turnout was 62.5%, 2 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 38,696 electors were registered; 142 ballots were rejected and 13 were declined.

Nearby divisions