Red Deer-North

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Red Deer-North, with 48.6% to 44.3%. That is leaning (66% of simulated elections).

UCP57.5% → 48.6%
NDP38.6% → 44.3%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 4.3 points (2023: UCP by 18.8). UCP win Red Deer-North if their lead province-wide is more than about −2.2 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Red Deer-North changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Red Deer-North is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Red Deer-North: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Adriana LaGrange (UCP) won Red Deer-North in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 57.5% of the vote, 3,485 votes (18.8 points) ahead of Jaelene Tweedle (NDP). 18,494 valid votes were counted; turnout was 55.8%.

Adriana LaGrange
Elected for United Conservative
3,485 voteswinning margin (18.8 points)
Adriana LaGrange 57.5%Jaelene Tweedle 38.6%Vicky Bayford 1.5%Heather Morigeau 1.4%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Red Deer-North 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Adriana LaGrangeelectedUnited Conservative10,629
57.5%
Jaelene TweedleNew Democratic7,144
38.6%
Vicky BayfordIndependence Party281
1.5%
Heather MorigeauGreen257
1.4%
Kallie DyckSolidarity Movement183
1%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 33rd-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 3,485 votes (18.8 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Adriana LaGrange took 57.5% here, 4.9 points above that.
  • Turnout was 55.8%, 4.7 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 33,382 electors were registered; 121 ballots were rejected and 9 were declined.

Nearby divisions