Peace River

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Peace River, with 63.9% to 28.5%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP72.8% → 63.9%
NDP22.9% → 28.5%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 35.4 points (2023: UCP by 50.0). UCP win Peace River if their lead province-wide is more than about −33.3 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Peace River changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Peace River is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Peace River: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Dan Williams (UCP) won Peace River in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 72.8% of the vote, 5,649 votes (50 points) ahead of Liana Paiva (NDP). 11,307 valid votes were counted; turnout was 49.1%.

Dan Williams
Elected for United Conservative
5,649 voteswinning margin (50 points)
Dan Williams 72.8%Liana Paiva 22.9%Conrad Nunweiler 2.6%Sharon Noullett 1.7%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Peace River 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Dan WilliamselectedUnited Conservative8,236
72.8%
Liana PaivaNew Democratic2,587
22.9%
Conrad NunweilerIndependent290
2.6%
Sharon NoullettIndependence Party194
1.7%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 54th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 5,649 votes (50 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Dan Williams took 72.8% here, 20.2 points above that.
  • Turnout was 49.1%, 11.4 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 23,146 electors were registered; 58 ballots were rejected and 0 were declined.

Nearby divisions