Lesser Slave Lake

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Lesser Slave Lake, with 56.1% to 38.8%. That is very likely (93% of simulated elections).

UCP65.0% → 56.1%
NDP33.2% → 38.8%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 17.3 points (2023: UCP by 31.9). UCP win Lesser Slave Lake if their lead province-wide is more than about −15.3 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Lesser Slave Lake changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Lesser Slave Lake is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Lesser Slave Lake: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Scott Sinclair (UCP) won Lesser Slave Lake in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 65% of the vote, 2,535 votes (31.9 points) ahead of Danielle Larivee (NDP). 7,951 valid votes were counted; turnout was 51%.

Scott Sinclair
Elected for United Conservative
2,535 voteswinning margin (31.9 points)
Scott Sinclair 65%Danielle Larivee 33.2%Bert (Bertrand) Seatter 1.8%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Lesser Slave Lake 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Scott SinclairelectedUnited Conservative5,171
65%
Danielle LariveeNew Democratic2,636
33.2%
Bert (Bertrand) SeatterSolidarity Movement144
1.8%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 23rd-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 2,535 votes (31.9 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Scott Sinclair took 65% here, 12.4 points above that.
  • Turnout was 51%, 9.5 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 15,704 electors were registered; 49 ballots were rejected and 2 were declined.

Nearby divisions