Lethbridge-East

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would take Lethbridge-East from the UCP, with 53.1% to 41.4%. That is likely (83% of simulated elections).

UCP50.3% → 41.4%
NDP47.4% → 53.1%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 11.6 points (2023: UCP by 2.9). UCP win Lethbridge-East if their lead province-wide is more than about +13.7 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Lethbridge-East changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Lethbridge-East is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Lethbridge-East: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Nathan Neudorf (UCP) won Lethbridge-East in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 50.3% of the vote, 636 votes (2.9 points) ahead of Rob Miyashiro (NDP). 21,848 valid votes were counted; turnout was 62%.

Nathan Neudorf
Elected for United Conservative
636 voteswinning margin (2.9 points)
Nathan Neudorf 50.3%Rob Miyashiro 47.4%Helen McMenamin 2.2%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Lethbridge-East 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Nathan NeudorfelectedUnited Conservative10,998
50.3%
Rob MiyashiroNew Democratic10,362
47.4%
Helen McMenaminLiberal488
2.2%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 11th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 636 votes (2.9 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Nathan Neudorf took 50.3% here, 2.3 points below that.
  • Turnout was 62%, 1.5 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 35,495 electors were registered; 149 ballots were rejected and 14 were declined.

Nearby divisions