Lethbridge-West

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Lethbridge-West, with 59.5% to 33.6%. That is very likely (99% of simulated elections).

UCP42.5% → 33.6%
NDP53.9% → 59.5%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 25.9 points (2023: NDP by 11.4). UCP win Lethbridge-West if their lead province-wide is more than about +28.0 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Lethbridge-West changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Lethbridge-West is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Lethbridge-West: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Shannon Phillips (NDP) won Lethbridge-West in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 53.9% of the vote, 2,557 votes (11.4 points) ahead of Cheryl Seaborn (UCP). 22,407 valid votes were counted; turnout was 61.5%.

Shannon Phillips
Elected for New Democratic
2,557 voteswinning margin (11.4 points)
Shannon Phillips 53.9%Cheryl Seaborn 42.5%Braham Luddu 1.9%Pat Chizek 1.7%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Lethbridge-West 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Shannon PhillipselectedNew Democratic12,082
53.9%
Cheryl SeabornUnited Conservative9,525
42.5%
Braham LudduAlberta Party425
1.9%
Pat ChizekLiberal375
1.7%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 24th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 2,557 votes (11.4 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Shannon Phillips took 53.9% here, 9.9 points above that.
  • Turnout was 61.5%, 1 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 36,642 electors were registered; 132 ballots were rejected and 8 were declined.

Nearby divisions