Cardston-Siksika

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Cardston-Siksika, with 65.2% to 23.4%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP74.1% → 65.2%
NDP17.8% → 23.4%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 41.8 points (2023: UCP by 56.4). UCP win Cardston-Siksika if their lead province-wide is more than about −39.7 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Cardston-Siksika changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Cardston-Siksika is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Cardston-Siksika: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Joseph Schow (UCP) won Cardston-Siksika in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 74.1% of the vote, 8,023 votes (56.4 points) ahead of Colleen Quintal (NDP). 14,234 valid votes were counted; turnout was 56.1%.

Joseph Schow
Elected for United Conservative
8,023 voteswinning margin (56.4 points)
Joseph Schow 74.1%Colleen Quintal 17.8%Angela Tabak 6.1%Terry Wolsey 1.8%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Cardston-Siksika 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Joseph SchowelectedUnited Conservative10,550
74.1%
Colleen QuintalNew Democratic2,527
17.8%
Angela TabakIndependent871
6.1%
Terry WolseyIndependence Party251
1.8%
Pär WantenaarSolidarity Movement35
0.2%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 67th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 8,023 votes (56.4 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Joseph Schow took 74.1% here, 21.5 points above that.
  • Turnout was 56.1%, 4.4 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 25,472 electors were registered; 57 ballots were rejected and 7 were declined.

Nearby divisions