Brooks-Medicine Hat

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Brooks-Medicine Hat, with 57.6% to 33.0%. That is very likely (98% of simulated elections).

UCP66.5% → 57.6%
NDP27.4% → 33.0%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 24.6 points (2023: UCP by 39.1). UCP win Brooks-Medicine Hat if their lead province-wide is more than about −22.5 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Brooks-Medicine Hat changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Brooks-Medicine Hat is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Brooks-Medicine Hat: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Danielle Smith (UCP) won Brooks-Medicine Hat in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 66.5% of the vote, 7,838 votes (39.1 points) ahead of Gwendoline Dirk (NDP). 20,025 valid votes were counted; turnout was 58.2%.

Danielle Smith
Elected for United Conservative
7,838 voteswinning margin (39.1 points)
Danielle Smith 66.5%Gwendoline Dirk 27.4%Barry Morishita 6.2%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Brooks-Medicine Hat 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Danielle SmithelectedUnited Conservative13,315
66.5%
Gwendoline DirkNew Democratic5,477
27.4%
Barry MorishitaAlberta Party1,233
6.2%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 66th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 7,838 votes (39.1 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Danielle Smith took 66.5% here, 13.9 points above that.
  • Turnout was 58.2%, 2.3 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 34,594 electors were registered; 89 ballots were rejected and 3 were declined.

Nearby divisions