Drumheller-Stettler

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Drumheller-Stettler, with 73.2% to 20.1%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP82.1% → 73.2%
NDP14.4% → 20.1%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 53.2 points (2023: UCP by 67.7). UCP win Drumheller-Stettler if their lead province-wide is more than about −51.1 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Drumheller-Stettler changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Drumheller-Stettler is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Drumheller-Stettler: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Nate Horner (UCP) won Drumheller-Stettler in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 82.1% of the vote, 12,586 votes (67.7 points) ahead of Juliet Franklin (NDP). 18,590 valid votes were counted; turnout was 63.3%.

Nate Horner
Elected for United Conservative
12,586 voteswinning margin (67.7 points)
Nate Horner 82.1%Juliet Franklin 14.4%Shannon Packham 2.1%Hannah Stretch Viens 0.8%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Drumheller-Stettler 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Nate HornerelectedUnited Conservative15,270
82.1%
Juliet FranklinNew Democratic2,684
14.4%
Shannon PackhamIndependence Party382
2.1%
Hannah Stretch ViensWildrose Loyalty Coalition150
0.8%
Carla EversSolidarity Movement104
0.6%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 86th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 12,586 votes (67.7 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Nate Horner took 82.1% here, 29.5 points above that.
  • Turnout was 63.3%, 2.8 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 29,549 electors were registered; 99 ballots were rejected and 4 were declined.

Nearby divisions