Airdrie-East

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Airdrie-East, with 56.5% to 34.4%. That is very likely (97% of simulated elections).

UCP62.0% → 56.5%
NDP35.4% → 34.4%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 22.1 points (2023: UCP by 26.6). UCP win Airdrie-East if their lead province-wide is more than about −20.0 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Airdrie-East changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Calgary polling

Airdrie-East is projected from the Calgary poll average: UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202646%45%

This is a model, not a poll of Airdrie-East: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Calgary polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Angela Pitt (UCP) won Airdrie-East in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 62% of the vote, 6,518 votes (26.6 points) ahead of Dan Nelles (NDP). 24,535 valid votes were counted; turnout was 61.8%.

Angela Pitt
Elected for United Conservative
6,518 voteswinning margin (26.6 points)
Angela Pitt 62%Dan Nelles 35.4%Michael Jacobsen 2.5%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Airdrie-East 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Angela PittelectedUnited Conservative15,215
62%
Dan NellesNew Democratic8,697
35.4%
Michael JacobsenGreen623
2.5%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 58th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 6,518 votes (26.6 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Angela Pitt took 62% here, 9.4 points above that.
  • Turnout was 61.8%, 1.3 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 39,931 electors were registered; 136 ballots were rejected and 17 were declined.

Nearby divisions