Calgary-Falconridge

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Calgary-Falconridge, with 55.3% to 34.2%. That is very likely (97% of simulated elections).

UCP39.7% → 34.2%
NDP56.4% → 55.3%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 21.2 points (2023: NDP by 16.7). UCP win Calgary-Falconridge if their lead province-wide is more than about +23.2 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Calgary-Falconridge changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Calgary polling

Calgary-Falconridge is projected from the Calgary poll average: UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202646%45%

This is a model, not a poll of Calgary-Falconridge: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Calgary polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Parmeet Singh Boparai (NDP) won Calgary-Falconridge in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 56.4% of the vote, 2,310 votes (16.7 points) ahead of Devinder Toor (UCP). 13,808 valid votes were counted; turnout was 48.9%.

Parmeet Singh Boparai
Elected for New Democratic
2,310 voteswinning margin (16.7 points)
Parmeet Singh Boparai 56.4%Devinder Toor 39.7%Kyle Kennedy 1.8%Ahmed Hassan 1.5%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Calgary-Falconridge 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Parmeet Singh BoparaielectedNew Democratic7,786
56.4%
Devinder ToorUnited Conservative5,476
39.7%
Kyle KennedyIndependent252
1.8%
Ahmed HassanGreen203
1.5%
Evan WilsonSolidarity Movement91
0.7%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 21st-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 2,310 votes (16.7 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Parmeet Singh Boparai took 56.4% here, 12.4 points above that.
  • Turnout was 48.9%, 11.6 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 28,473 electors were registered; 106 ballots were rejected and 3 were declined.

Nearby divisions