Calgary-Fish Creek

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Calgary-Fish Creek, with 48.3% to 43.0%. That is leaning (68% of simulated elections).

UCP53.8% → 48.3%
NDP44.0% → 43.0%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 5.3 points (2023: UCP by 9.7). UCP win Calgary-Fish Creek if their lead province-wide is more than about −3.2 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Calgary-Fish Creek changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Calgary polling

Calgary-Fish Creek is projected from the Calgary poll average: UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202646%45%

This is a model, not a poll of Calgary-Fish Creek: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Calgary polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Myles McDougall (UCP) won Calgary-Fish Creek in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 53.8% of the vote, 2,489 votes (9.7 points) ahead of Rebecca Bounsall (NDP). 25,561 valid votes were counted; turnout was 70.2%.

Myles McDougall
Elected for United Conservative
2,489 voteswinning margin (9.7 points)
Myles McDougall 53.8%Rebecca Bounsall 44%Charlie Heater 1.5%Dave Hughes 0.7%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Calgary-Fish Creek 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Myles McDougallelectedUnited Conservative13,743
53.8%
Rebecca BounsallNew Democratic11,254
44%
Charlie HeaterLiberal378
1.5%
Dave HughesSolidarity Movement186
0.7%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 22nd-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 2,489 votes (9.7 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Myles McDougall took 53.8% here, 1.2 points above that.
  • Turnout was 70.2%, 9.7 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 36,692 electors were registered; 191 ballots were rejected and 4 were declined.

Nearby divisions