Calgary-Hays

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Calgary-Hays, with 50.1% to 41.3%. That is likely (79% of simulated elections).

UCP55.6% → 50.1%
NDP42.3% → 41.3%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 8.9 points (2023: UCP by 13.3). UCP win Calgary-Hays if their lead province-wide is more than about −6.8 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Calgary-Hays changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Calgary polling

Calgary-Hays is projected from the Calgary poll average: UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202646%45%

This is a model, not a poll of Calgary-Hays: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Calgary polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Richard William (Ric) McIver (UCP) won Calgary-Hays in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 55.6% of the vote, 2,820 votes (13.3 points) ahead of Andrew Stewart (NDP). 21,233 valid votes were counted; turnout was 61%.

Richard William (Ric) McIver
Elected for United Conservative
2,820 voteswinning margin (13.3 points)
Richard William (Ric) McIver 55.6%Andrew Stewart 42.3%Evelyn Tanaka 1.5%Garry Leonhardt 0.6%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Calgary-Hays 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Richard William (Ric) McIverelectedUnited Conservative11,807
55.6%
Andrew StewartNew Democratic8,987
42.3%
Evelyn TanakaGreen321
1.5%
Garry LeonhardtSolidarity Movement118
0.6%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 28th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 2,820 votes (13.3 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Richard William (Ric) McIver took 55.6% here, 3 points above that.
  • Turnout was 61%, 0.5 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 35,009 electors were registered; 122 ballots were rejected and 11 were declined.

Nearby divisions