Calgary-South East

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Calgary-South East, with 53.3% to 38.4%. That is very likely (90% of simulated elections).

UCP58.8% → 53.3%
NDP39.4% → 38.4%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 15.0 points (2023: UCP by 19.4). UCP win Calgary-South East if their lead province-wide is more than about −12.9 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Calgary-South East changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Calgary polling

Calgary-South East is projected from the Calgary poll average: UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202646%45%

This is a model, not a poll of Calgary-South East: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Calgary polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Matt Jones (UCP) won Calgary-South East in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 58.8% of the vote, 4,645 votes (19.4 points) ahead of Justin Huseby (NDP). 23,951 valid votes were counted; turnout was 62.9%.

Matt Jones
Elected for United Conservative
4,645 voteswinning margin (19.4 points)
Matt Jones 58.8%Justin Huseby 39.4%Catriona Wright 1.3%Heinrich Friesen 0.4%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Calgary-South East 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Matt JoneselectedUnited Conservative14,087
58.8%
Justin HusebyNew Democratic9,442
39.4%
Catriona WrightGreen318
1.3%
Heinrich FriesenSolidarity Movement104
0.4%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 47th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 4,645 votes (19.4 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Matt Jones took 58.8% here, 6.2 points above that.
  • Turnout was 62.9%, 2.4 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 38,310 electors were registered; 142 ballots were rejected and 4 were declined.

Nearby divisions