Calgary-Varsity

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Calgary-Varsity, with 57.2% to 35.1%. That is very likely (97% of simulated elections).

UCP40.6% → 35.1%
NDP58.3% → 57.2%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 22.1 points (2023: NDP by 17.6). UCP win Calgary-Varsity if their lead province-wide is more than about +24.2 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Calgary-Varsity changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Calgary polling

Calgary-Varsity is projected from the Calgary poll average: UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202646%45%

This is a model, not a poll of Calgary-Varsity: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Calgary polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Luanne Metz (NDP) won Calgary-Varsity in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 58.3% of the vote, 4,072 votes (17.6 points) ahead of Jason Copping (UCP). 23,079 valid votes were counted; turnout was 71.3%.

Luanne Metz
Elected for New Democratic
4,072 voteswinning margin (17.6 points)
Luanne Metz 58.3%Jason Copping 40.6%Oaklan Davidsen 0.6%Kent Liang 0.5%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Calgary-Varsity 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Luanne MetzelectedNew Democratic13,449
58.3%
Jason CoppingUnited Conservative9,377
40.6%
Oaklan DavidsenWildrose Loyalty Coalition141
0.6%
Kent LiangSolidarity Movement112
0.5%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 41st-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 4,072 votes (17.6 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Luanne Metz took 58.3% here, 14.3 points above that.
  • Turnout was 71.3%, 10.8 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 32,692 electors were registered; 233 ballots were rejected and 10 were declined.

Nearby divisions