Calgary-Mountain View

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Calgary-Mountain View, with 63.6% to 27.7%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP33.2% → 27.7%
NDP64.7% → 63.6%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 36.0 points (2023: NDP by 31.5). UCP win Calgary-Mountain View if their lead province-wide is more than about +38.0 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Calgary-Mountain View changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Calgary polling

Calgary-Mountain View is projected from the Calgary poll average: UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202646%45%

This is a model, not a poll of Calgary-Mountain View: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Calgary polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Kathleen Ganley (NDP) won Calgary-Mountain View in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 64.7% of the vote, 8,048 votes (31.5 points) ahead of Pamela Rath (UCP). 25,528 valid votes were counted; turnout was 67.2%.

Kathleen Ganley
Elected for New Democratic
8,048 voteswinning margin (31.5 points)
Kathleen Ganley 64.7%Pamela Rath 33.2%Frances Woytkiw 1.3%Christopher Wedick 0.5%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Calgary-Mountain View 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Kathleen GanleyelectedNew Democratic16,516
64.7%
Pamela RathUnited Conservative8,468
33.2%
Frances WoytkiwLiberal335
1.3%
Christopher WedickSolidarity Movement119
0.5%
Lucas HernandezPro-Life Alberta90
0.4%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 68th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 8,048 votes (31.5 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Kathleen Ganley took 64.7% here, 20.7 points above that.
  • Turnout was 67.2%, 6.7 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 38,359 electors were registered; 243 ballots were rejected and 8 were declined.

Nearby divisions