Calgary-Buffalo

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Calgary-Buffalo, with 61.9% to 29.3%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP34.7% → 29.3%
NDP63.0% → 61.9%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 32.7 points (2023: NDP by 28.3). UCP win Calgary-Buffalo if their lead province-wide is more than about +34.8 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Calgary-Buffalo changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Calgary polling

Calgary-Buffalo is projected from the Calgary poll average: UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202646%45%

This is a model, not a poll of Calgary-Buffalo: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Calgary polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Joe Ceci (NDP) won Calgary-Buffalo in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 63% of the vote, 5,929 votes (28.3 points) ahead of Astrid Kuhn (UCP). 20,987 valid votes were counted; turnout was 58.6%.

Joe Ceci
Elected for New Democratic
5,929 voteswinning margin (28.3 points)
Joe Ceci 63%Astrid Kuhn 34.7%Jonathan Parks 1.7%Lona Henry 0.6%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Calgary-Buffalo 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Joe CecielectedNew Democratic13,221
63%
Astrid KuhnUnited Conservative7,292
34.7%
Jonathan ParksGreen349
1.7%
Lona HenrySolidarity Movement125
0.6%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 56th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 5,929 votes (28.3 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Joe Ceci took 63% here, 19 points above that.
  • Turnout was 58.6%, 1.9 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 36,266 electors were registered; 241 ballots were rejected and 9 were declined.

Nearby divisions