Calgary-Acadia

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Calgary-Acadia, with 47.5% to 43.0%. That is leaning (64% of simulated elections).

UCP48.5% → 43.0%
NDP48.6% → 47.5%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 4.5 points (2023: NDP by 0.1). UCP win Calgary-Acadia if their lead province-wide is more than about +6.6 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Calgary-Acadia changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Calgary polling

Calgary-Acadia is projected from the Calgary poll average: UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202646%45%

This is a model, not a poll of Calgary-Acadia: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Calgary polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Diana Batten (NDP) won Calgary-Acadia in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 48.6% of the vote, 22 votes (0.1 points) ahead of Tyler Shandro (UCP). 22,562 valid votes were counted; turnout was 65.3%.

Diana Batten
Elected for New Democratic
22 voteswinning margin (0.1 points)
Diana Batten 48.6%Tyler Shandro 48.5%Paul Bechthold 1.3%Larry R. Heather 0.7%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Calgary-Acadia 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Diana BattenelectedNew Democratic10,959
48.6%
Tyler ShandroUnited Conservative10,937
48.5%
Paul BechtholdGreen293
1.3%
Larry R. HeatherIndependent162
0.7%
Donna Kathleen ScottWildrose Loyalty Coalition119
0.5%
Linda McClellandSolidarity Movement92
0.4%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The closest race in Alberta: 22 votes (0.1 points) separated the top two candidates.
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Diana Batten took 48.6% here, 4.6 points above that.
  • Turnout was 65.3%, 4.8 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 34,828 electors were registered; 156 ballots were rejected and 10 were declined.

Nearby divisions