Calgary-Elbow

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Calgary-Elbow, with 48.0% to 40.5%. That is likely (74% of simulated elections).

UCP46.0% → 40.5%
NDP49.0% → 48.0%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 7.4 points (2023: NDP by 3.0). UCP win Calgary-Elbow if their lead province-wide is more than about +9.5 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Calgary-Elbow changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Calgary polling

Calgary-Elbow is projected from the Calgary poll average: UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202646%45%

This is a model, not a poll of Calgary-Elbow: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Calgary polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Samir Kayande (NDP) won Calgary-Elbow in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 49% of the vote, 743 votes (3 points) ahead of Chris Davis (UCP). 24,870 valid votes were counted; turnout was 69%.

Samir Kayande
Elected for New Democratic
743 voteswinning margin (3 points)
Samir Kayande 49%Chris Davis 46%Kerry Cundal 4.6%Artur Pawlowski 0.4%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Calgary-Elbow 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Samir KayandeelectedNew Democratic12,189
49%
Chris DavisUnited Conservative11,446
46%
Kerry CundalAlberta Party1,136
4.6%
Artur PawlowskiSolidarity Movement99
0.4%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 13th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 743 votes (3 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Samir Kayande took 49% here, 5 points above that.
  • Turnout was 69%, 8.5 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 36,337 electors were registered; 215 ballots were rejected and 5 were declined.

Nearby divisions