Calgary-Peigan

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Calgary-Peigan, with 49.5% to 41.0%. That is likely (77% of simulated elections).

UCP55.0% → 49.5%
NDP42.1% → 41.0%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 8.5 points (2023: UCP by 12.9). UCP win Calgary-Peigan if their lead province-wide is more than about −6.4 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Calgary-Peigan changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Calgary polling

Calgary-Peigan is projected from the Calgary poll average: UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202646%45%

This is a model, not a poll of Calgary-Peigan: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Calgary polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Tanya Fir (UCP) won Calgary-Peigan in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 55% of the vote, 2,797 votes (12.9 points) ahead of Denis Ram (NDP). 21,613 valid votes were counted; turnout was 63.1%.

Tanya Fir
Elected for United Conservative
2,797 voteswinning margin (12.9 points)
Tanya Fir 55%Denis Ram 42.1%Shaun Pulsifer 2.9%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Calgary-Peigan 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Tanya FirelectedUnited Conservative11,892
55%
Denis RamNew Democratic9,095
42.1%
Shaun PulsiferGreen626
2.9%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 27th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 2,797 votes (12.9 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Tanya Fir took 55% here, 2.4 points above that.
  • Turnout was 63.1%, 2.6 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 34,455 electors were registered; 130 ballots were rejected and 9 were declined.

Nearby divisions