Calgary-East

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Calgary-East, with 44.7% to 44.2%. That is a toss-up (53% of simulated elections).

UCP50.2% → 44.7%
NDP45.3% → 44.2%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 0.5 points (2023: UCP by 4.9). UCP win Calgary-East if their lead province-wide is more than about +1.6 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Calgary-East changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Calgary polling

Calgary-East is projected from the Calgary poll average: UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202646%45%

This is a model, not a poll of Calgary-East: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Calgary polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Peter Singh (UCP) won Calgary-East in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 50.2% of the vote, 698 votes (4.9 points) ahead of Rosman Valencia (NDP). 14,181 valid votes were counted; turnout was 45.2%.

Peter Singh
Elected for United Conservative
698 voteswinning margin (4.9 points)
Peter Singh 50.2%Rosman Valencia 45.3%Jayden Baldonado 2.8%Garry Dirk 1.2%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Calgary-East 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Peter SinghelectedUnited Conservative7,123
50.2%
Rosman ValenciaNew Democratic6,425
45.3%
Jayden BaldonadoGreen403
2.8%
Garry DirkSolidarity Movement166
1.2%
Jonathan TrautmanCommunist64
0.5%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 12th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 698 votes (4.9 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Peter Singh took 50.2% here, 2.4 points below that.
  • Turnout was 45.2%, 15.3 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 31,715 electors were registered; 137 ballots were rejected and 4 were declined.

Nearby divisions