Calgary-North West

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would take Calgary-North West from the UCP, with 46.7% to 42.8%. That is leaning (63% of simulated elections).

UCP48.3% → 42.8%
NDP47.7% → 46.7%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 3.9 points (2023: UCP by 0.6). UCP win Calgary-North West if their lead province-wide is more than about +5.9 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Calgary-North West changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Calgary polling

Calgary-North West is projected from the Calgary poll average: UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202646%45%

This is a model, not a poll of Calgary-North West: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Calgary polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Rajan Sawhney (UCP) won Calgary-North West in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 48.3% of the vote, 143 votes (0.6 points) ahead of Michael Lisboa-Smith (NDP). 24,675 valid votes were counted; turnout was 69.7%.

Rajan Sawhney
Elected for United Conservative
143 voteswinning margin (0.6 points)
Rajan Sawhney 48.3%Michael Lisboa-Smith 47.7%Jenny Yeremiy 3.2%Serena Thomsen 0.6%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Calgary-North West 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Rajan SawhneyelectedUnited Conservative11,921
48.3%
Michael Lisboa-SmithNew Democratic11,778
47.7%
Jenny YeremiyAlberta Party778
3.2%
Serena ThomsenIndependent153
0.6%
Alain HabelSolidarity Movement45
0.2%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 4th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 143 votes (0.6 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Rajan Sawhney took 48.3% here, 4.3 points below that.
  • Turnout was 69.7%, 9.2 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 35,595 electors were registered; 138 ballots were rejected and 9 were declined.

Nearby divisions