Calgary-North East

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would hold Calgary-North East, with 54.0% to 39.5%. That is likely (89% of simulated elections).

UCP45.0% → 39.5%
NDP55.0% → 54.0%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 14.5 points (2023: NDP by 10.1). UCP win Calgary-North East if their lead province-wide is more than about +16.6 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Calgary-North East changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Calgary polling

Calgary-North East is projected from the Calgary poll average: UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202646%45%

This is a model, not a poll of Calgary-North East: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Calgary polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Gurinder Brar (NDP) won Calgary-North East in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 55% of the vote, 2,039 votes (10.1 points) ahead of Inder Grewal (UCP). 20,195 valid votes were counted; turnout was 58.1%.

Gurinder Brar
Elected for New Democratic
2,039 voteswinning margin (10.1 points)
Gurinder Brar 55%Inder Grewal 45%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Calgary-North East 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Gurinder BrarelectedNew Democratic11,117
55%
Inder GrewalUnited Conservative9,078
45%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 19th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 2,039 votes (10.1 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44% of the vote across Alberta; Gurinder Brar took 55% here, 11 points above that.
  • Turnout was 58.1%, 2.4 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 35,035 electors were registered; 142 ballots were rejected and 5 were declined.

Nearby divisions